There is a 96 percent probability of a 25-basis point (i.e., 0.25 percent) rate cut announcement on Wednesday and a 4 percent chance of a “jumbo” 50-basis point cut.

DURHAM, N.C. — COVID-19 is the first pandemic many people have experienced in their lifetime. But, statistically, these types of events aren’t rare. A study analyzed outbreaks of novel diseases over ...

Researchers from the Federal Reserve Banks of New York and San Francisco studied financial markets to divine the probability of the Fed's benchmark interest rate falling back to zero. During the 2008 ...

And that probability is only growing, which the authors say highlights the need to adjust perceptions of pandemic risks and expectations for preparedness. "The most important takeaway is that large ...