Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Firms’ Inflation Expectations During the Pandemic-Era Surge

Inflation expectations among businesses can affect how they set current prices. Firms’ expectations diverged from those of ...
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Prices and Monetary Policy: The Role of Financial Constraints

Firm heterogeneity in financial constraints is a quantitatively important driver of how monetary policy transmits to ...
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

SF FedViews: Labor Market in Balance but Inflation Elevated and Uncertain

Thomas M. Mertens, senior vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, ...
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Applying Federal Reserve Data to Local Financial Inclusion Efforts: A Case Study from California’s Central Valley

Local data presented by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco staff at the San Joaquin Valley Financial Empowerment convening ...
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Do Vibes Predict Recessions? Evidence from a Big-Data Forecasting Framework

Measures of beliefs, sentiment, and narratives often send recession signals that differ from those in hard data, defined as ...
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Twelfth District Beige Book: July 2026

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was somewhat muted but largely stable during the mid-May through June reporting ...
San Francisco Fed

AI Adoption Among Small Businesses: Qualitative Insights from the Small Business Credit Survey

Nearly 40% of small business respondents to the 2024 Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS) reported either using or planning to use artificial intelligence (AI), revealing a rapidly evolving landscape ...