Trump’s tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, autos and goods not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement have upended the status quo. He has threatened to raise some of those tariffs to 35 percent by Aug. 1. Canada sends more than 75 percent of its exports to the U.S.

The analysis, released Tuesday, points to the challenges Trump might face in trying to sell his tariffs to the public as a broader political and economic win and not just as evide