In the days before the shock nighttime raid when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, one user on the “prediction market” Polymarket quietly set the wheels in motion to vastly enrich themselves. A series of wagers brought the user to more than $30,000 invested in their guess that Maduro would be ousted by the end of January. When Maduro’s capture was announced on January 3, that user was suddenly $400,000 richer. Michael Smerconish talks with Columbia University economics pro